Evaluation of rice yields in the Krasnodar Region

Abstract

Using one of the most effective methods of forecasting - the equalisation of statistical series (the “moving ten-years “ method) made it possible to estimate the rhythms of heat supply of the growing season and rice yields throughout the century. For more than a hundred years the monodirectional trend to increase or decrease of the average annual and spring- and- summer air temperatures were not found in the Krasnodar region. The periods with the average temperature during the growing season of rice above and below 18,7оС regularly replace each other. It was also found that after an anomalously high heat supply level of the growing season, marked during the past decade, we should expect a decrease spring-and-summer temperatures and the onset of another relatively “cold ” cycle. If this hypothesis is confirmed up to 2020 and later will continue the tendency to regular rise yield decreasing which determined by unfavourable temperature factors, that may be affect on economic efficiency of sector.